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ABI: Mobile Device Shipments on Target for 1 Billion by End of 2006

December 15, 2006 // Published as a news service by IHS

 
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The second quarter of 2006 was softer than expected in terms of handset shipments and prices, but ABI Research anticipates that fourth quarter 2006 will prove a bumper quarter for mobile operators and handset vendors.

"The market topped 245 million mobile devices shipped in 3Q 2006 and the global mobile devices marketplace is on target to reach 1 billion devices by the year's end," said Jake Saunders, research director of ABI Research.

"The handset vendors are pulling out all the stops to get their slickest, flattest, largest music memory, biggest megapixel camera phones onto the shelves in time for the 4Q 2006 holiday jamborees."

Analysts said the "Gang of Five" - Nokia (36%), Motorola (23.3%), Samsung (12.5%), Sony Ericsson (8.1%) and LG (6.7%) - all increased market share at the expense of the smaller handset vendors. Economies of scale, and marketing, it seems, are everything.

"Initiatives such as super thin phones have helped manufacturers such as Samsung and Motorola gain market share, but Nokia's ability to pump out phones for the emerging markets, cut handset average selling prices (ASPs) and exploit its brand image have served to maintain, and even boost, Nokia's market share," said ABI Research principal analyst Stuart Carlaw.

The net result of this scramble for market share has been lower ASPs. "The global weighted ASP dropped a steep 7.8% in 3Q 2006, compared to a 1.6% rise in 2Q 2006," said Saunders, "with 4Q 2006 unlikely to fare any better. The competition is cutthroat."

Third generation (3G) handset shipment volumes proved to be a bit soft in 3Q 2006. Analysts said 2.75G EDGE, which has been rolled out by a number of operators, has made the perceived performance gain of owning a 3G phone over a second generation (2G) global system for mobile communication (GSM) phone less distinct. Also, a number of vendors and operators are planning a big overhaul of their 3G phone line up for 4Q 2006.

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Vodafone unveiled 10 new phones for the festive season, six of which are 3.5G high-speed downlink packet access (HSDPA)-capable. HSDPA effectively "turbo-charges" the 3G experience, analysts said. HSDPA will dramatically change the download experience for end-users wishing to download music, games, etc. The question is, will the turbo-charge kick in quickly enough?

Source: ABI Research.

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