ABI: Wireless Technologies Compete for Space in Portable Computers
December 20, 2006 // Published as a news service by IHS
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A changing mix of communications protocols will compete for space in notebook computers as they take a growing share of the personal computer (PC) market over the next five years.
A new study from ABI Research found that wireless-equipped notebooks will feature a gradual shift from IEEE 802.11g to IEEE 802.11n Wi-Fi, and there will be significant growth in the number of notebooks with embedded ultra wideband (UWB) or cellular radios.
"There is limited room in a notebook computer for antennas and radios," said ABI Research vice president Stan Schatt.
"We'll see a battle among competing technologies to reserve a place within the notebook, and a number of chip manufacturers are very concerned about that.
"Notebooks will all (except perhaps the lowest tier of inexpensive Asian machines) have Wi-Fi. The question is, what else will they have? UWB? Cellular? WiMAX (worldwide interoperability for microwave access)?"
Both notebook manufacturers and wireless integrated circuit (IC) vendors such as Intel, Atheros and Marvell have a critical interest in how notebook connectivity is going to evolve.
With the IEEE 802.11n standard still some way off, and the Wi-Fi Alliance aggressively promoting certification of "pre-n" products, analysts said the stage may be set for some market confusion.
"Some of the chip makers in particular are unrealistic about their expectations for pre-draft 802.11n," said Schatt. "In our experience, large enterprises are always very conservative about embracing non-standard solutions. As a result, what we're likely to see in the next couple of years is a solid majority of 'premium g' device sales in the consumer sector, but not much traction in the enterprise."
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ABI Research also found a seismic change in the mix of regional distribution of PCs over the next few years, with Asia growing strongly and dramatically shifting its mix of consumer and commercial PCs. The report also breaks down the commercial sector's buying patterns by the size of the business - large enterprises versus small to medium enterprises (SMEs).
Source: ABI Research.