Frost: Mass Adoption of WiMAX Possible in Developing Countries with Minimal Infrastructure
December 29, 2006 // Published as a news service by IHS
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Worldwide interoperability for microwave access (WiMAX) is likely to become popular in geographical pockets as it offers significant benefits to developing countries with poor existing infrastructure.
According to Frost & Sullivan, success of this technology in the developed world depends on a number of factors.
Analysts said from the invention of the radio, the future of technology has been wireless. The benefit of eliminating wires led the development of radio, satellite communication, cell phones and eventually Wi-Fi.
This commoditization was responsible for the wide adoption of the technology, leading to cheaper products and a rise in usage.
"By eliminating the copper connection to the home, customers could walk away from their current service providers and simply switch to Internet access through a WiMAX tower in their town," said Frost & Sullivan research analyst Sivam Sabesan.
"Although Wi-Fi is considered a competitor for WiMAX, it is generally limited to a range measured in feet, whereas WiMAX can operate in a radius defined in miles."
WiMAX received a boost when Intel began marketing it full-force in early 2004.
Looking to cover entire cities with Wi-Fi, Intel decided to install a large number of access points, but the general consensus was that management of these access points would be a difficult task.
Analysts said Internet access had to evolve as a carrier technology and the company started working on unlicensed spectrums.
By mid-2006, Intel was widely promoting the WiMAX forum and, through its venture capital division, was making strategic investments in companies with the potential to become market leaders in this segment.
Despite the hype, WiMAX products are just now entering the market through trials. The mobile version will not be in the market until 2007 when the first products are certified. Analysts said the deployment of equipment must be initiated for WiMAX to get its momentum. This is important to bring the cost point lower and help it compete with other technologies.
"People are discussing the WiMAX changing paradigms before the commencement of widespread adoption and as with any new technology there are always concerns regarding the generation of excessive hype about the capabilities of the technology, the timeframes in which it will be available, and the unit costs," said Sabesan.
"WiMAX also has to overcome issues such as interference within the same frequency which could lead to a decline in the QoS (quality of service), which in turn would lead to regulations that directly affect the popularity of the scheme."
The mass media often refers to WiMAX as the next generation of Wi-Fi, but the real question is whether WiMAX will replace Wi-Fi as a preferred access medium. Analysts said the short answer is "no" - the two technologies will coexist.
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WiMAX is likely to succeed as a technology because it has a standard, which means lower prices, more competition and the ability to take over the market. In addition, analysts said the developments in Asia Pacific in terms of the economy and booming industries are likely to increase demand for this technology.
Source: Frost & Sullivan.