ABI: Mobile WiMAX Faces Diminishing Time to Market Advantage
March 26, 2008 // Published as a news service by IHS
Service providers with the right spectrum, available capital and access to enough sites to place base stations are in a great position to take advantage of the head start worldwide interoperability for microwave access (WiMAX) has on the fourth generation (4G) market, according to Frost & Sullivan.
Long-term evolution (LTE) and ultra mobile broadband (UMB) are also vying for 4G, analysts said.
And even though mobile WiMAX has a time to market advantage over LTE, delays in certifications by the WiMAX Forum (coupled with delays in network rollouts) could narrow that window of opportunity.
ABI Research analysts said they are confident that UMB will not gain traction, as the true battle for 4G blossoms between mobile WiMAX and LTE.
"The biggest opportunity for mobile WiMAX is the chance to develop a wider device ecosystem and worldwide subscriber base before LTE starts to do the same," said ABI Research principal analyst Philip Solis.
"However, LTE remains a potential threat to WiMAX, since 3GPP [Third-Generation Partnership Project]-backed LTE will become the dominant 4G technology and is progressing quickly toward standardization.
"Additionally, LTE is seeing early trials take place while moving into TDD [time division duplexing], as well as FDD [frequency division duplexing] spectrum territory."
Global system for mobile communication (GSM)-based networks represent the primary radio access network technology deployed, with more than 80% of the installed base of base stations worldwide. Analysts said as a result, wideband code division multiple access (W-CDMA) networks generally will migrate to LTE, with Verizon Wireless being a notable exception.
Eventually, this will translate to wider deployment at a faster rate than WiMAX. Analysts said LTE subscriber numbers will surpass mobile WiMAX subscribers after 2015.
Around the same time that LTE rolls out, the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers' (IEEE) 802.16m, or WiMAX 2.0, will make its way into products, analysts said. Just like LTE, 802.16m will be part of the International Mobile Telecommunications - Advanced (IMT-Advanced) set of technologies.
"One main differentiator for 802.16m will be its backward-compatibility with a developed OFDMA [orthogonal frequency division multiple access] ecosystem derived from 802.16e," said Solis. "Whereas LTE will be not be backward-compatible with anything except through the inclusion of 2G [second generation] and 3G [third generation radios, 2G/3G compatibility can and will be achieved with WiMAX in the same way."
Source: ABI Research.