ABI: Poor Market Outlook for Ultra Mobile Broadband; Qualcomm Future Secure
January 14, 2008 // Published as a news service by IHS
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The prospects for widespread adoption of Qualcomm's flagship fourth generation (4G) technology ultra mobile broadband (UMB) are dim, according to a new study from ABI Research.
Yet, Qualcomm's intellectual property (IP) portfolio is strong in key enabling technologies for 4G, and the company faces no real threat to its long-term future, even without successful UMB network rollouts.
The UMB technology should be commercially available by mid-2009, but there may be no takers. "No operator has yet announced plans to trial or deploy UMB," said ABI Research senior analyst Nadine Manjaro.
"Several of the major CDMA [code division multiple access] operators in the two primary markets are migrating to other technologies. Vendors cannot move forward with development unless their customers commit to trial this technology."
Manjaro said worldwide interoperability for microwave access (WiMAX) and long-term evolution (LTE) have ecosystems in place that offer support.
"LTE, which is expected to be available around 2010, already has operator commitment from Vodafone and Verizon," she said. "WiMAX has implemented many trials, and has over 50 commercial deployments underway."
Analysts said Qualcomm's biggest potential market for UMB is in Asia, but many operators there are considering WiMAX, or are still focused on third generation (3G), so UMB is unlikely to make much progress or significant revenue there.
However, Qualcomm has diversified its product portfolio by acquiring companies with orthogonal frequency division multiple access (OFDMA) and multiple input/multiple output (MIMO) patents - Flarion, for example - and has also developed chipsets for wideband CDMA (W-CDMA)/high-speed packet access (HSPA) technology. Analysts said Qualcomm will continue to be a strong industry player without UMB.
"While Qualcomm has made many significant contributions to mobile communications, in this case we just have to be realistic," said Manjaro. "Vendors need to step up and say that they aren't going to invest any more resources in developing this technology, since there is virtually no demand for it."
Source: ABI Research.