ABI: TD-SCDMA Will Dominate in China, But Falter Elsewhere
January 28, 2008 // Published as a news service by IHS
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Time division - synchronous code division multiple access (TD-SCDMA) is expected to be the dominant third generation (3G) technology in China, according to ABI Research, due to the heavyweight government support it receives.
"TD-SCDMA is likely to face an uphill battle outside of mainland China, even in Hong Kong," said ABI Research analyst Hwai Lin Khor.
Analysts said China's TD-SCDMA ecosystem is ready. Both Chinese and international industry players are already showing off their multimode handsets with TD-SCDMA/ global system for mobile communication (GSM)/ general packet radio service (GPRS)/ enhanced data rates for GSM evolution (EDGE) interfaces.
The deployed network infrastructure is already upgraded to a high-speed downlink packet access (HSDPA)-enhanced version. TD-SCDMA's intellectual property (IP) rights holder, Datang Mobile, is already working toward an evolution of TD-SCDMA that will eventually incorporate long-term evolution (LTE).
Analysts said the evidence suggests that the current 3G delay is due to regulatory complications, rather than technical ones.
According to ABI Research, the restructuring of the telecommunications industry will continue through first quarter 2008. The first TD-SCDMA license will be issued at the end of the quarter.
Initial TD-SCDMA services will be provided in the 10 cities where China Mobile, China Telecom and China Netcom have deployed trial networks. The rest of the 3G licenses will be released six to nine months after TD-SCDMA.
"If the price points of handsets and services are attractive, TD-SCDMA may not need to fear WCDMA [wideband code division multiple access] in the domestic market," Hwai Lin Khor said.
China's influence on Hong Kong's telecommunications industry is becoming more significant, analysts said. This is apparent through the recent 850 MHz band spectrum auction for CDMA2000 services, to ensure continuity of roaming services for China's visitors using CDMA handsets.
"It is no surprise that TD-SCDMA will eventually make its move into the island once the Chinese government has finalized its 3G outcome," said Hwai Lin Khor. In fact, 5 MHz of time division duplexing (TDD) spectrum was already allocated to the universal mobile telecommunications system (UMTS) licensees when the license was issued.
"However, the success of TD-SCDMA in a mature market such as Hong Kong's is heavily dependent on market forces. It will face tough competition outside mainland China."
Source: ABI Research.