ITU: Worldwide Mobile Cellular Subs to Reach 4B Mark in Late 2008
October 21, 2008 // Published as a news service by IHS
Worldwide mobile cellular subscribers are likely to reach the 4 billion mark before the end of this year, according to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU).
Since the turn of the century, mobile cellular subscribers grew with year-on-year growth averaging 24% between 2000 and 2008.
While in 2000, mobile penetration stood at only 12%, it surpassed the 50% mark by early 2008. It is estimated to reach about 61% by the end of 2008.
While the data shows "impressive" growth, the ITU stresses that the figures need to be carefully interpreted. Although in theory a 61% penetration rate suggests that at least every second person could be using a mobile phone, this is not necessarily the case.
In fact, the statistics reflect the number of subscriptions, not persons.
Double counting takes place when people have multiple subscriptions. Also, operators' methods for counting active prepaid subscribers vary and often inflate the actual number of people who use a mobile phone, said the ITU.
Also, some subscribers, particularly in developing countries, share their mobile phone with others. This was cited as the success story of Grameen Phone in rural Bangladesh, for instance.
The ITU said that despite high growth rates in the mobile sector, major differences in mobile penetration rates remain between regions and within countries.
The growth in the number of mobile cellular subscribers is mainly due to developments in some of the world's largest markets, said the ITU.
Brazil, Russia, India and China are expected to have an important impact in terms of population, resources and global gross domestic product share. These economies alone are expected to account for more than 1.3 billion mobile subscribers by the end of 2008, said the ITU.
China surpassed the 600 million mark by mid-2008, representing the world's largest mobile market, said the ITU.
India had some 296 million mobile subscribers by the end of July 2008 but with a relatively low penetration rate of about 20%, India offers great potential for growth.
Market liberalization played a role in spreading mobile telephony by driving competition and bringing down prices. India’s mobile operators compete for low-income customers and average-revenue-per-user in India reached around U.S. $7, one of the lowest in the world, said the ITU.
The ITU published two regional reports for Africa and Asia, which indicate how mobile telephony is changing peoples' lives.
Apart from providing communication services to previously unconnected areas, mobile applications opened the doors to innovations such as m-commerce to access pricing information for rural farmers and the use of mobile phones to pay for goods and services.
While mobile broadband subscribers remain concentrated in the developed world, some developing countries such as Indonesia, the Maldives, the Philippines and Sri Lanka in Asia-Pacific launched 3G networks.
The use of broadband technologies can help overcome many of the basic development challenges faced by developing countries, said the ITU.
Source: International Telecommunication Union (ITU).