Electro/Telecom Industry Trends
GEIA Forecasts Homeland Security Spending for FY2002-FY2007
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The Government Electronics and Information Technology Association (GEIA), long known for its detailed analysis of the Department of Defense (DoD), National Aerospace Standards Association (NASA) and Federal Information Technology budgets and markets, has developed its first annual forecast of Federal spending for Homeland Security (HLS). The forecast is the culmination of months-long analysis encompassing interviews with key players in the homeland security arena.
Tracking HLS funding is a difficult challenge, with more than 100 Federal organizations involved, little visibility into formal spending plans, and evolving and confusing budget definitions. The GEIA analysis looked at the FY 2002 appropriations and emergency supplemental request, the Emergency Terrorist Response Bill, and the President's FY 2003 budget request. It determined HLS funding from these actions and coupled this with an estimate of funding through 2007.
The Analysis found that six departments accounted for 85% of the post-September 11th funding, including:
- DoD
- Transportation
- Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
- Department of Justice
- Health & Human Services
- Department of Treasury
Taken together, post-September 11th spending amounted to $125.7 billion. The GEIA forecast of future spending assumes no new terrorist incidents that might spark a large and immediate increase in funding. The FY 2003 forecast of $32b is expected to rise by a compound annual growth rate of 11.7%, reaching $51b by FY 2007.
"We are pleased to have begun the process of forecasting HLS market opportunities for our industry," said Dan Heinemeier, president of GEIA. "We will continue to refine the analysis and develop an even more in-depth view for presentation at our market forecast Vision conference on October 31, 2002."
Significant opportunities are forecast in a variety of agencies for such tasks and capabilities as:
- Hiring and training security personnel
- Explosion detection equipment
- Distress systems modernization
- Cyber security
- Real-time identification systems
- Data interoperability/sharing
Heinemeir continued, "By forecasting budgets and business opportunities, our goal is to help industry better prepare to meet emerging government needs, and enhance our national ability to respond to the Homeland Security challenge." 1
1 Primary Source: Government Electronics and Information Technology Association
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